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Aruba: Murder by numbers
As Coverage Mania of the Holloway story continues unabated, let's do some math. I know - we got into journalism precisely because we were told there would be no math. But let's do some anyway and answer empirically: Just how dangerous is that vicious, pirate-ridden, uncaring island of Aruba?
BY STEVE SAFRAN
LOST REMOTE MANAGING EDITOR
The population of Aruba is about 72,000 people. A conservative estimate of visitors in a given week is about 13,500. Total people on island at any given time? About 85,500.
Last year in Aruba there were two murders - possibly just one, depending on which stat you believe. We'll go with two anyway. No tourists were killed. That's a murder rate on Aruba of a little over 2 per 100,000, but we’ll call it an even 2. Or look at it this way: The Aruba murder rate is .0002.
Still, you can't go a minute without hearing about Natalee and you're worried. Maybe you're switching your vacation from Aruba to Jamaica. Bring some Kevlar. Murder rate: 32 per 100,000.
You'll be twice as safe in Puerto Rico as you would be in Jamaica. Still, it's eight times more dangerous than Aruba: 16 per 100,000 folks in Puerto Rico are going to meet an untimely end this year (with or without Greta Van Sustern caring).
If you're fine with 10 in 100,000 murders per capita, we can suggest Mexico, Estonia, Belize, the Dominican Republic and maybe Barbados during a bad year. Feel a little more secure in Costa Rica. Of your 100,000 friends, 99,994 won't get capped.
So, stick to the U.S. Virgin Islands. We run it. How bad could it be? Turns out you better leave behind a lot of clues if you're going there: 25 murders per 100,000. That's worse than ANY American city, save for New Orleans where shooting guns into the air is considered good, clean fun. The British Virgin Islands are more polite, but say “cheerio” to 11 per 100,000 chaps.
Screw it, you think, I'll just stay home. Now you're only three times as likely to be killed as if you went to Aruba, with the U.S. murder rate at about 6 per 100,000. The murder rate in New York City, from where Fox News constantly reminds us how dangerous Aruba is, was 7 per 100,000 people in 2002. And if your home is in, let's say, Alabama, up the murder rate to 7.5 per 100,000. Then wonder if one of your congressman will call for a boycott of your own state.
Obviously, there are safer places to vacation than Aruba. Go to Slovenia, Tunisia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia or Qatar and you're golden. Go to Canada, and you're as safe as you could be. Of course, it's colder than Aruba, but the murder rate is tiny. And it's much less likely your family will be pestered by Nancy Grace. She's from the south. She hates the cold.
I got a certain amount of hate mail regarding my last column on Aruba media insanity. (Ironically, Aruba Today's editor said she loved it.) One eloquent writer asked "Do you have a life?" I think it's pretty obvious the answer is "No, of course not. I work in news." One person asked, simply "What is your point?" Context. That's my point. I am not mocking this tragedy, nor the importance of it to the family. What I am so troubled by is a national media obsession that is making Aruba look as though it is run by the Sopranos. Before we ruin the Aruban economy, which is dependent on tourism, here is a little more context:
Natalee disappeared on May 30, 2005. Also on that date, five U.S. soldiers died in Iraq: Corp. Jeffrey B. Starr died in Ramadi, and SSGT. Casey Crate, Captain Derek Argel, Captain Jeremy Fresques and Major William Downes died in Jalawah.
There are currently 19 kids from Alabama listed as missing at the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children website. (2 are from before 1980, some are indeed "family abductions" or "runaways".)
In South Africa, two young tourists were murdered the day after Natalee went missing.
LaToyia Figueroa, a 24-year-old pregnant woman from South Philadelphia, has been missing since July. She is Black. There has been just about no media coverage (except for stories wondering why there's no media coverage). Contrast that with the non-stop madness surrounding Laci Peterson, a 27-year-old pregnant woman from Modesto, California, who was white.
35,000 children are forced to work as prostitutes just across the sea from Aruba, in Colombia.
It's unlikely you’ll be murdered in Aruba, and it’s even more unlikely the news will care. Of course, there are ways to skew the numbers. It turns out you can geometrically expand the odds of having your story covered if you’re a cute white girl with an articulate mother during a slow news cycle. This should generate a significant spike in ratings numbers; after all, that’s the only stat that really matters.
Sources:
Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), International Comparisons of Criminal Justice Statistics 2001-Home Office Bulletin 12/03 http://www.ascotadvisory.com/News_Bulletin/9961.html
Georgia State U. Department of Criminal Justice Statistical Analysis Bureau: http://www.cjgsu.net/initiatives/HomRates-2004-05-14.htm
Iraq Casualties from Centcom.mil, via Iraq Coalition Casualty Count http://icasualties.org/oif/ Black America Web: http://www.blackamericaweb.com/site.aspx/bawnews/figueroa808
Colombia Journal Online: http://www.colombiajournal.org/colombia111.htm
With assistance (and math help) from: Julia Renfro, Editor in Chief, Aruba Today; RD Sahl, Anchor, NECN: Jeff Gralnick, MSNBC; Tom Melville, Asst. ND, NECN Posted by Steve Safran on 08/16/05 | Link | Comments (15)
